The lack of volatility speaks volumes as one analyst argues that Bitcoin is only worth investing in below $12,000 or above $19,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) entered the Christmas holiday period unchanged at $16,800 as an eerie lack of volatility persevered.
Hopeful price target sees Bitcoin at $17,400
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another day of an almost imperceptible range for BTC/USD just below $17,000.
The pair had struggled to break out despite multiple potential catalysts coming from United States economic data prints.
With the holiday season ahead, a Santa rally appeared unlikely, while a lack of significant events to come further reduced the chances of flash volatility.
In weekend analysis, however, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, nonetheless reiterated the possibility of a step higher to near $17,500 should current levels hold.
“Bitcoin still holding levels here as we flipped $16.750 for support,” he told Twitter followers.
“If that holds (and no sharp fall to $16.4K), I think we’ll still be able to see continuation to the upside to $17.4k.”
Popular analytics account On-Chain College meanwhile released a list of key levels to watch in the short term, with most of these to the downside.
They included realized price — the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved — along with balanced price, which expresses the difference between realized price and current spot price. The two tallies came in at $19,900 and $15,250, respectively on Dec. 23.
Fellow trader Crypto Poseidon conversely advised potential buyers to steer clear of the current range altogether.
“Whatever the reason, long-term purchases under $19k will waste a lot of time,” he commented on the weekly chart.
“There is 2 particular spot buy levels; above 19k or sub 12k.”
Woo: Bear market may not outlast 2015
Eyeing where the current bearish trend could end, meanwhile, Willy Woo, creator of on-chain analytics resource Woobull, had some potential good news for long-term holders (LTHs).
Related: Bitcoin low volume sparks BTC price warning as metric hits ‘value zone’
Bitcoin’s bear market could potentially end before becoming its longest ever, he argued on the day, likening this year’s events to those of 2013.
“The main question I have is how long this cycle’s accumulation zone will be,” he tweeted.
“Judging from all the blow ups, it’s more akin to 2013 with the MtGox collapse (Remember 90%+ of BTC was traded there). I suspect it will be longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
An accompanying chart showed the cost basis of LTHs — defined as entities hodling coins for 155 days or longer — and short-term holders (STHs), respectively.
The “premium” which results from LTH cost basis rising higher than STH cost basis has historically chimed with macro BTC price bottoming periods.
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